My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (versus New England Patriots). Better defenses have given Murray trouble this season, as he has averaged 14.0 fantasy points against the eight toughest defenses against quarterbacks using seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, but the Patriots are hardly one of those. They've seen three consecutive quarterbacks exceed 21 fantasy points against them, including most recently the similarly mobile Anthony Richardson (21.16 points, Week 13). It begins what's an outstanding series of fantasy-playoffs matchups for Murray, as every one of his Weeks 15-17 opponents (NE, @CAR, @LAR) ranks among the nine worst in Adjusted FPA to quarterbacks for the season.
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). He's a tough player to sit, as the No. 4 quarterback in fantasy points for the season (21.7 weekly average), but if you roster Hurts, be forewarned that he has a steeper downside than usual this week. The Steelers are the only defense to have not seen a single quarterback score 20 fantasy points against them, and a mere four, tied for the league's fewest, have reached 15. Worse yet, they've faced four of the league's top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on rushing plays -- Hurts leads that list -- and limited that group to 9.3 points per game, and 10.6 if excluding Richardson, who left the teams' Week 4 matchup early due to injury.